Copeland Stoke Central
Con gain from Labour Labour hold
%vote Change from 2015 General Election:
* = ELECTED
Con* +8.5% Con +1.8%
Lab -4.9% Lab* -2.2%
Lib-Dem +3.8% LIB-Dem +5.7%
UKIP -9.0% UKIP +2.1%
Green -1.3% Green -2.2%
Turn-out (ie % of registered electors that voted):
51.33% ( -12.5% cf GE2015) 38.2% (-11.7% cf GE2015)
My commentary follows references to data.
1) The Labour vote did not evaporate in either case, contrary to the propaganda by the capitalists
2) The Tories played a blinder again by selecting a woman candidate who had worked in the local industry: nuclear power and reprocessing. And by pointing out the long-held anti-nuclear credentials of Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn.
3) To finish the Copeland remarks, the UKIP vote looks mostly to have switched back to its traditional home ,the Conservatives (ie UKIP -9.0% ,Conservatives +8.5%) with the prresently-typical protest vote going to the Lib-Dems and not the Greens).
And the turn-out moved down by 12.5%, to 51.33%, from the 2015 General Election level (which, at 63.83% was almost the same as the turn-out average in England of 65.8%).
4) In Stoke Central (which was a much more 'high prrofile' election due to the presence of a well-publicised UKIP candidate and a re-standing Muslim candidate for the Lib-Dems). the turn out at both the 2015 General Election (only 51.26%, then) and this by-election (36.7%, down, therefore, from 2015 by 11.7%) reflected/es the run-down economic status of many ex-industrial, mostly northern and midlands Constituences, that were used and deserted by the New Labour project of Tony Blair, Peter Madelson, Gordon Brown, JohnPrescott, Neil Kinnock, etc.
5) To round-out the Stoke Central commentary, the UKIP efforts mostly failed despite the media coverage, etc. The two protest votes moved as in Copeland (LD up, Green down: neither by much).
6) The bigger picture:
The two by-elections were caused by resignations of two anti-Corbyn, pro-Remain, Blair/Mandelson-promoted New Labour MPs (whether they are members of The Labour Friends of Israel I don't know: that pro-Zionist group has along-standing hatred of Jeremy Corbyn's pro-Palestinian position).
Their resignations certainly appear to have been coordinated by the pro-Remain, pro-capitalist factions (which likely the involvement, if not coordination, of the Chatham House pro-capitalist network).
As such it was a failed attempt to 'get rid of' the Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell project for democratic and co-operative socialist.
A project that is heartened by the outcome.
Not least that the Blairite candidate in Copeland was defeated.
One step back, but two steps forward (at least!)